Saturday, December 1, 2012

A500.7.3.RB_RuggerioSteven


Title: Logic and Leadership: A View on Quantitative Research
Two weeks ago my daughter sent me a humorous anecdote that summed up much of my experience and accompanying anxiety perpetuated by mathematical word problems.  
It went like this:
Question: “If you have 4 pencils and I have 7 apples, how many pancakes will fit on the roof?
Answer: “Purple, because aliens don’t wear hats.”
The reason we all laugh is because we all relate.  We remember the number two pencil sliding through our sweaty hands, the increased heart rate, and tightly closing our eyes while trying to envision a train leaving Chicago going 60 mph meeting another train in New York going 70 mph…it’s brutal. What train will arrive first? But, there is hope. Welcome to math science, operations research, decision making modeling, and for the purpose of this blog, quantitative research.
Every day each one of us is bombarded with decisions. What to wear? Who to marry? Where to work? How much to invest? Life is, in itself and by definition, a conglomeration of individual decisions. Making the right decision can feel like walking through a minefield. Make the right decision and you survive to take another step. Make the wrong decision and everything changes; sometimes painfully and oftentimes with collateral damage. As a leader of an organization, we face daily decisions that either add value or cause damage to the organization’s goals and possibly, its members as well.
Tero Mamia helps explain the basis of quantitative research when he said, “quantitative research aims at (causal) explanations. It answers primarily to why? – questions.” His slide presentation helps define how research capabilities empower people to prove and disprove various theories through the delicate balance of theoretical and empirical research methods.  Quantitative research is a methodology that aids in decision making by demonstrating relationships between different variables. It offers insight into present and future possibilities through the use of regression analysis, linear regression, and other analytical methods that arm leaders with the information necessary to make better decisions.
John Kros (2009) in his book Spreadsheet Modeling for Business Decisions defined quantitative business decision making as, “The application of a scientific approach to solving management problems in order to help managers make better decisions” (p. 4).  He also added, “It is a process-driven modeling approach that forces one to think logically about the problem at hand” (p. 39).  Making decisions and solving problems are synonymous with leadership.  Quantitative research helps us do both more efficiently.
With seven billion people in the world and over three million of them living in the US, leaders understand—and Mamia points out—that conducting surveys and tests on a few folks will help reveal what’s going on with most folks. One of the best ways to accomplish this task is by utilizing sampling methods. He stated, “We study a sample of the group (population) which represents the larger whole.”  Statistics at its best.
As leaders, we’re expected to be aware of what is happening around us and what may happen in the future.  While we can’t predict the future with absolutes (short of death), there is enough data available to help us improve the decisions we must make. It is a wonderful tool. However, we must not fall prey to analysis paralysis—spending all our time reviewing statistical data. I went to see the movie Lincoln over the Thanksgiving holiday. Throughout the movie, President Lincoln—one of our nation’s most respected leaders—knew the decision of abolishing slavery was a national imperative.  He needed no analytical model to break down his decision. He only needed truth driven by passion.  Part of being a great leader is knowing when to analyze and when to act. Lincoln analyzed the consequences of the war; he acted on the amendment.  
Legacy acts.
Steve

References:
Kros, J. (2009). Spreadsheet Modeling for Business Decisions. Dubuque, IA: Kendall Hunt Publishing Company.

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